Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Averages and Crowd Wisdom Models in Medical Forecasting in China : Evidence from Affiliated University Hospitals

Authors(6) :-Henry Asante Antwi, Zhou Lulin, Mary Opokua Ansong, Basil Kusi, Patrick Achaempong,Tehzeeb Mustafa

The insight that crowd responses to an estimation task can be modeled as a sample from a probability distribution has invited comparisons with individual cognition and conventional decision making tools. However, within the past decade, conflicting evidence of the generalisability of crowd wisdom techniques in forecasting has reignited the debate on their robusticity in healthcare decision making. Patient arrivals at otorhinolaryngology departments of selected hospitals in China were modeled and predicted using a prediction market crowd wisdom technique. The mean average percentage error was compared with similar predictions using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages. The prediction market quarterly patient flow prediction defeated the seasonal autoregressive moving averages model by 0.06% in the affiliated hospital of the Guilin medical university and by 0.56% in the affiliated Jiangsu university hospital but were weaker in terms of daily and monthly predictions. Moreover, we observed a striking seasonal variation in otorhinolaryngology department attendance; an aberration from past knowledge that inspires curiosity for further research

Authors and Affiliations

Henry Asante Antwi
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Institute of Medical Insurance and Healthcare Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Zhou Lulin
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Institute of Medical Insurance and Healthcare Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Mary Opokua Ansong
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Department of Computer Science, School of Applied Science, Kumasi Polytechnic, P. O. Box 854, Kumasi, Ghana
Basil Kusi
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Patrick Achaempong
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Tehzeeb Mustafa
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Institute of Medical Insurance and Healthcare Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China

SARIMA, Prediction Market, Medical, Forecasting, China

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Publication Details

Published in : Volume 2 | Issue 1 | January-February 2017
Date of Publication : 2017-02-28
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 141-147
Manuscript Number : CSEIT172121
Publisher : Technoscience Academy

ISSN : 2456-3307

Cite This Article :

Henry Asante Antwi, Zhou Lulin, Mary Opokua Ansong, Basil Kusi, Patrick Achaempong,Tehzeeb Mustafa, "Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Averages and Crowd Wisdom Models in Medical Forecasting in China : Evidence from Affiliated University Hospitals", International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science, Engineering and Information Technology (IJSRCSEIT), ISSN : 2456-3307, Volume 2, Issue 1, pp.141-147 , January-February.2017
URL : http://ijsrcseit.com/CSEIT172121

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