Crowd Wisdom Models in Demand Forecasting in China’s Health Sector: Cases from Guanxi and Jiangsu Provinces

Authors(5) :-Henry Asante Antwi, Zhou Lulin, Mary Opokua Ansong, Samuel Owusu Mensah, Tehzeeb Mustafa

Available literature shows that a large group's aggregated answers to questions involving quantity estimation, general world knowledge, and spatial reasoning has generally been found to be as good as, and often better than, the answer given by any of the individuals within the group. This has inspired the development of new models of crowd wisdom techniques such as prediction markets. Using cases in selected hospitals in the Guanxi and Jiangsu Provinces in China, we evaluate the efficacy of prediction markets in predicting patient arrivals in the emergency departments using an enhanced prediction market model. Our results are compared with the prediction estimate using a benchmark time series regression model on historical records. The time series regression model outperformed the prediction market in the short term prediction but the latter was superior in estimating patient flow in a long term forecasting across the healthcare facilities.

Authors and Affiliations

Henry Asante Antwi
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, 212012, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Institute of Medical Insurance and Healthcare Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Zhou Lulin
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, 212012, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Institute of Medical Insurance and Healthcare Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Mary Opokua Ansong
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, 212012, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China and Department of Computer Science, School of Applied Science, Kumasi Polytechnic, P. O. Box 854, Kumasi, Ghana
Samuel Owusu Mensah
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, 212012, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China
Tehzeeb Mustafa
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, 212012, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, P.R. China

Prediction Market, Time Series, Regression, Health, Demand, China

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Publication Details

Published in : Volume 2 | Issue 1 | January-February 2017
Date of Publication : 2017-02-28
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 148-155
Manuscript Number : CSEIT172122
Publisher : Technoscience Academy

ISSN : 2456-3307

Cite This Article :

Henry Asante Antwi, Zhou Lulin, Mary Opokua Ansong, Samuel Owusu Mensah, Tehzeeb Mustafa, "Crowd Wisdom Models in Demand Forecasting in China’s Health Sector: Cases from Guanxi and Jiangsu Provinces", International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science, Engineering and Information Technology (IJSRCSEIT), ISSN : 2456-3307, Volume 2, Issue 1, pp.148-155 , January-February.2017
URL : http://ijsrcseit.com/CSEIT172122

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